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Sector 05 of 12 How sure we are: Observed 8 min read

Education

Governments in sub-Saharan Africa spend 3.6 times more on debt payments than on schools, so budgets now decide how far African children learn.

Pupils at Qamar Primary School, Mogadishu, Somalia.
Pupils at Qamar Primary School, Mogadishu, Somalia. Photo: AMISOM Public Information, CC0 1.0 (opens in a new tab), via source page (opens in a new tab).

What happened at the UN

In one sentenceOn 23 September Nigeria and Italy hosted a funding meeting for the Global Partnership for Education (GPE), a global fund that helps lower-income countries pay for and improve their schools.

On 23 September Nigeria and Italy hosted a funding meeting for the , a that helps lower-income countries pay for and improve their schools. The meeting raised $3.5 billion. Of that, $2.1 billion was pledged to GPE itself, against a target of $5 billion for 2026 to 2030. Another $1.4 billion came as from public development lenders, foundations and companies. Partner countries promised to raise their own education spending by 32% by 2030, to $471 billion. Italy doubled its contribution. Nigeria, the co-host with the most children out of school, published no pledge. The fund now has less than half of what it asked for.

Google and the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), the UN agency for digital technology, offered 100,000 scholarships for Google's online AI certificate in more than 80 countries. On 24 September the African Development Bank, the AI Hub of the UN Development Programme, Google and the learning platform Apolitical launched free online AI courses for African public officials. They published no budget and no target for how many officials would take part. Neither offer trains teachers, changes what schools teach or connects schools to the internet.

Sources for this section (5)

What is really going on

In one sentenceThe second report on education across Africa by the UN education agency (UNESCO), the UN children's agency (UNICEF) and the African Union finds 75 million more children in school than in 2015.

The second report on education across Africa by the UN education agency (), the UN children's agency () and the finds 75 million more children in school than in 2015. Over the same period, the number out of school rose by 13.2 million, to more than 100 million. African countries now invest less in education than they did in 2015 and 2020. The yearly funding gap is about $77 billion. The share of children who finish school rises by less than one percentage point a year. At that pace, many children now starting school will leave without finishing.

Sub-Saharan Africa needs 15 million new teachers by 2030, a third of the 44 million needed worldwide. Teachers are also leaving faster. Across the world, the share of primary teachers who leave the job each year almost doubled, from 4.6% in 2015 to 9.1% in 2022. Every teacher who leaves makes the African shortage harder to close.

Four in five ten-year-olds in Africa cannot read and understand a simple text, and learning levels appear to be falling. Seven in ten children in sub-Saharan Africa get no schooling before primary school. In 2021, low-income African countries spent about $54 a year on each student, while high-income countries spent about $8,500. Yet schooling pays well in Africa. Each extra year in school raises earnings by 12.4% in the region, against 10% worldwide.

In July 2026 UNESCO published a paper called Breaking the debt trap. It finds that governments in sub-Saharan Africa spend on average 3.6 times more on debt payments than on education. In eight countries they spend at least five times more: Angola, Sierra Leone, The Gambia, the Republic of the Congo, Zambia, Mauritius, Uganda and Chad. Since 2017, each extra dollar paid on debt has come with about 28 cents less for education, after inflation. Most of these payments, 62%, go to lenders inside the country. Money that could pay teachers goes to lenders first.

Aid for education is falling fast. It is expected to fall 30% from its 2023 peak by 2027. Aid for basic schooling fell 15% between 2023 and 2024, and 17% in low-income countries. The United States cut its total aid by 57%, and Germany cut its development budget by 25%. The United Kingdom's aid is falling to 0.3% of national income by 2027. Liberia, Mali and Niger may lose more than 40% of their education aid. A common claim is that 97% of education money in the region comes from national budgets. That average hides countries that depend heavily on aid, such as Burundi, where aid pays for 19% of public education spending.

Few school systems have rules on AI. A 2023 UNESCO survey found that only 10% of schools and universities worldwide had formal guidance on it. Mauritius adopted Africa's first national AI strategy in 2018, and Kenya and Rwanda have their own. In June 2024 eastern African states adopted the Nairobi Statement on AI, which stresses ethical use and training for teachers. Research is also thin. Sub-Saharan Africa spends 0.38% of its national income on research, against a world average of 1.92%. It has 88 researchers for every million people, against 1,486 worldwide. Africa is entering the AI age with few rules for schools and few scientists of its own.

Several African governments spend five to twelve times more on debt service than on schools Debt service as a multiple of education spending
-40481216AngolaAngola: 12.2x12.2xSierra LeoneSierra Leone: 8.4x8.4xThe GambiaThe Gambia: 6.2x6.2xZambiaZambia: 5.9x5.9xRepublic of the CongoRepublic of the Congo: 5.9x5.9xUgandaUganda: 5.3x5.3xSub-Saharan averageSub-Saharan average: 3.6x3.6x
Show the data as a table
Several African governments spend five to twelve times more on debt service than on schools. Debt service as a multiple of education spending.
ItemDebt service as a multiple of education spending
Angola12.2x
Sierra Leone8.4x
The Gambia6.2x
Zambia5.9x
Republic of the Congo5.9x
Uganda5.3x
Sub-Saharan average3.6x
In some countries aid pays for a large share of education Aid as a share of education spending, %
-10%0%10%20%30%40%RwandaRwanda: 40%40%Sierra LeoneSierra Leone: 31%31%BurundiBurundi: 19%19%

Rwanda's figure is reported as nearly 40%.

Show the data as a table
In some countries aid pays for a large share of education. Aid as a share of education spending, %.
ItemAid as a share of education spending, %
Rwanda40%
Sierra Leone31%
Burundi19%
Sources for this section (7)

Country by country

In one sentenceNigeria had about 9.1 million primary-age children out of school in 2023.

Nigeria had about 9.1 million primary-age children out of school in 2023. That is more than twice Ethiopia's 4.2 million in 2024, and the largest number among African countries with recent data. Nigeria's federal education budget rose to 3.52 trillion naira in 2025, from 1.54 trillion naira in 2023. Because Nigeria is so large, progress on schooling across Africa depends heavily on its choices.

Sierra Leone offers free schooling while carrying heavy debt. It spends 8.4 times more on debt than on education. Its 2026 education budget of 4.0 billion leones, about $169 million, rose 9.4% in cash terms and fell about 1% after inflation. Debt payments of 8.6 billion leones are more than double the education budget. When interest is counted in total spending, education takes 13.5% of the budget and 2.2% of national income, below the benchmark of 4% to 6%. Early childhood education gets 0.04% of the education budget. Aid pays for 31% of public education spending, so falling aid adds to the pressure.

Angola spends 12.2 times more on debt than on education, and gave education 6.5% of government spending in 2025. Kenya gave education 28.5%, the highest share among the countries compared here. Uganda gave 8.5% in 2022 and Zambia 14.5% in 2025. Their debt payments were 5.3 and 5.9 times their education spending. Kenya's model for funding university students began in May 2023. The High Court declared it unconstitutional in 2024, and the Court of Appeal restored it in March 2025. About 400,000 students were left unsure of their fees.

Kenya has given 10,382 laptops and as many smart boards to junior schools, and trained more than 62,000 teachers in computer skills. A programme backed by UNICEF had connected 363 of a planned 1,000 primary schools to the internet by December 2025. Rwanda depends on aid more than any country named by the Global Education Monitoring (GEM) Report. Aid pays for nearly 40% of its public education spending, so cuts abroad reach its classrooms directly.

Nigeria has more than twice as many primary-age children out of school as Ethiopia Primary-age children out of school, millions (latest year)
-2.502.55.07.510.0Nigeria (2023)Nigeria (2023): 9.19.1Ethiopia (2024)Ethiopia (2024): 4.24.2Tanzania (2024)Tanzania (2024): 2.02.0Niger (2024)Niger (2024): 1.91.9Mali (2023)Mali (2023): 1.21.2Kenya (2023)Kenya (2023): 0.470.47South Africa (2023)South Africa (2023): 0.450.45

Primary school age only; lower and upper secondary out-of-school children are excluded. Countries with no data since 2020, including the DRC and Sudan, are not shown,.

Show the data as a table
Nigeria has more than twice as many primary-age children out of school as Ethiopia. Primary-age children out of school, millions (latest year).
ItemPrimary-age children out of school, millions (latest year)
Nigeria (2023)9.07
Ethiopia (2024)4.24
Tanzania (2024)2.01
Niger (2024)1.88
Mali (2023)1.19
Kenya (2023)0.47
South Africa (2023)0.45
Kenya gives education more than a quarter of its budget, and Angola under a fifteenth Government education spending, % of total government spending (latest year)
-808162432Kenya (2025)Kenya (2025): 28.528.5Namibia (2025)Namibia (2025): 24.624.6Morocco (2024)Morocco (2024): 23.323.3Senegal (2025)Senegal (2025): 20.920.9Sierra Leone (2025)Sierra Leone (2025): 20.520.5South Africa (2025)South Africa (2025): 19.119.1Côte d'Ivoire (2024)Côte d'Ivoire (2024): 17.617.6Ethiopia (2024)Ethiopia (2024): 16.716.7Malawi (2024)Malawi (2024): 1616Zambia (2025)Zambia (2025): 14.514.5Rwanda (2025)Rwanda (2025): 13.913.9Cameroon (2024)Cameroon (2024): 13.813.8Tanzania (2024)Tanzania (2024): 13.413.4Ghana (2022)Ghana (2022): 13.213.2Uganda (2022)Uganda (2022): 8.58.5Angola (2025)Angola (2025): 6.56.5

International benchmark: 15 to 20% of public spending (Incheon Framework). Denominators differ by source: UNICEF puts Sierra Leone's 2026 share at 13.5% when interest payments are included in total spending. Nigeria is omitted because its series value (3.0% in 2024) is not comparable with the others.

Show the data as a table
Kenya gives education more than a quarter of its budget, and Angola under a fifteenth. Government education spending, % of total government spending (latest year).
ItemGovernment education spending, % of total government spending (latest year)
Kenya (2025)28.5
Namibia (2025)24.6
Morocco (2024)23.3
Senegal (2025)20.9
Sierra Leone (2025)20.5
South Africa (2025)19.1
Côte d'Ivoire (2024)17.6
Ethiopia (2024)16.7
Malawi (2024)16
Zambia (2025)14.5
Rwanda (2025)13.9
Cameroon (2024)13.8
Tanzania (2024)13.4
Ghana (2022)13.2
Uganda (2022)8.5
Angola (2025)6.5
Sources for this section (8)

Why this matters

In one sentenceThe continental report names fast population growth as one of three reasons progress has stalled, beside crises and weak funding.

The continental report names fast population growth as one of three reasons progress has stalled, beside crises and weak funding. More children reach school age every year, and the systems that must teach them are short of teachers and money. When the number of pupils rises and the budget stays flat, spending per child falls every year.

Most of the debt payments that crowd out schools go to lenders at home, such as banks and that hold government bonds. African governments can therefore act without waiting for creditors abroad. A minimum for education spending, written into each government's debt plan, would protect classrooms when debts are rescheduled. Parliaments can make that minimum part of the budget law.

AI makes reading, reasoning and judgement more valuable, and a child who cannot read at ten cannot use it. Teaching every child to read and count is therefore the first AI policy any African government needs. Online certificates for adults do not reach the four in five children who leave the early grades unable to read. With so few researchers, African universities cannot yet supply the scientists that debates on AI and pandemics assume. Disputes such as Kenya's over university fees show that governments still handle universities as a budget problem. Universities train the experts a country needs to make its own decisions, and they need steady funding for that.

Sources for this section (2)

The case against this view

In one sentenceFree AI courses and certificates reach people quickly and cost governments nothing.

Free AI courses and certificates reach people quickly and cost governments nothing. The rise in enrolment since 2015 is large, and in every country learning has lagged behind enrolment before catching up. Kenya already gives education more than a quarter of its budget, so a bigger budget share does not settle the question on its own. The World Bank argues that spending money well matters as much as spending more of it.

Sources for this section (1)

By audience

What you can do

Governments

Do thisWrite a minimum for education spending, measured after inflation, into your debt strategy and the 2027/28 budget.

WhyEach extra dollar paid on debt has come with 28 cents less for schools.

Governments

Do thisHire and pay the qualified volunteer teachers already in your schools before building new classrooms.

WhySub-Saharan Africa needs 15 million more teachers by 2030, and Sierra Leone's budget brief calls for taking on its volunteer teachers.

AU and regional bodies

Do thisAsk the AU to publish a yearly table of education spending against debt payments for every member state.

WhyA regular table would keep the trade-off in front of finance ministers.

NGOs and civil society

Do thisCompare education budgets with actual spending, and publish the gap every three months.

WhySierra Leone's budget rose in cash terms and fell after inflation, which headline figures hide.

Philanthropy

Do thisFund reading and counting programmes for young children in countries losing more than 40% of their education aid.

WhyLiberia, Mali and Niger face the steepest cuts.

Business and investors

Do thisPut AI training money into tools for teachers and learning content that works without the internet.

WhyOnly 363 of 1,000 targeted Kenyan primary schools were connected by the end of 2025.

Researchers and media

Do thisShow, country by country, how rescheduling debt owed at home would change education budgets.

WhyMost debt payments go to lenders at home, within governments' own reach.

Young people and citizens

Do thisAsk candidates to commit to a minimum for education spending and to publish how many teachers they will hire.

WhyYoung people pay the price of classrooms without teachers.

October 2026 to December 2027

Dates to watch

  1. 5 October 2026

    World Teachers' Day

    A moment to press for paid posts for trained teachers. Source (opens in a new tab)

  2. 12 to 18 October 2026

    Annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, Bangkok

    The rules these lenders use to judge debt decide whether a minimum for education spending is accepted. Source (opens in a new tab)

  3. 24 January 2027

    International Day of Education

    A check on whether the pledges made to GPE in New York have been paid. Source (opens in a new tab)

  4. 12 to 17 April 2027

    Spring meetings of the IMF and the World Bank

    They take place as African governments finish their 2027/28 budgets. Source (opens in a new tab)

  5. 4 to 9 October 2027

    Annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank

    A test, one year on, of whether any has protected education spending. Source (opens in a new tab)

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