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Sector 04 of 12 How sure we are: Strong inference 7 min read

Health

Health money for Africa now comes through one-to-one deals, and patients' data is part of the price.

A nurse washes his hands in an emergency ward in Somalia.
A nurse washes his hands in an emergency ward in Somalia. Photo: AMISOM Public Information, CC0 1.0 (opens in a new tab), via source page (opens in a new tab).

What happened at the UN

In one sentenceEvery September, heads of state and ministers meet in New York for the opening of the UN General Assembly.

Every September, heads of state and ministers meet in New York for the opening of the . This year one meeting was meant to agree a on preparing for pandemics. On 25 September it failed. The United States said it could not support the text, and Italy and the also objected. African governments, speaking together through Burundi, supported it. The text now goes to a vote before the end of the year.

Two days earlier, the United States brought a group of countries together outside the . That meeting raised about $3 billion to fight Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). African governments together gave $110 million, less than 4% of the total. asked that every dollar be tracked from promise to payment.

A group set up by Ghana's President John Mahama, called , also published a plan. It proposes merging several global health funds and handing their work to African governments over five to ten years. It records that outside money for health in Africa fell by almost 70% between 2021 and 2025.

Sources for this section (3)

What is really going on

In one sentenceThe Ebola outbreak in the DRC is the largest the country has ever had.

The Ebola outbreak in the DRC is the largest the country has ever had. By 23 September, WHO had confirmed 7,890 cases and 3,799 deaths, most of them in Ituri province in the east. This type of Ebola, called , has no approved vaccine or treatment. Trials of possible vaccines began in August and September.

At the same time, the money that paid for much of Africa's health care is shrinking. Global aid for health fell to about $38 billion in 2025, less than half its level in 2021. raised $12.6 billion against a target of $18 billion. lost its US pledge and cut a third of its staff.

The United States now sends much of its health money through separate deals with individual countries, which it calls "" health agreements. Thirty-five countries have signed, 24 of them in Africa. Each government must pay a share of the cost, on average 39%, and that share rises each year. Several deals also give US agencies access to patient records, disease tracking systems and samples of viruses.

Africa is short of health workers, yet many trained ones cannot find a job. WHO expects the region to be short of 5.85 million health workers by 2030. It also counts 943,000 trained nurses, midwives and doctors with no job in 2024. Many leave for Europe and North America, where nurses earn about seven times more. Hiring all of them would cost about $7.8 billion a year.

In 2001, African governments promised in to spend 15% of their budgets on health. Few have done so. In 2023, South Africa spent 16.9% and Namibia 15%, while Nigeria spent 4.3% and the DRC 4%.

Global health aid has more than halved from its 2021 peak Development assistance for health, US$ billion
02550751002021 peak: 80.380.32021 peak2025: 38.438.42025

The 2025 figure is the lowest since 2009.

Show the data as a table
Global health aid has more than halved from its 2021 peak. Development assistance for health, US$ billion.
ItemDevelopment assistance for health, US$ billion
2021 peak80.3
202538.4
Africa is short of health workers while nearly a million trained workers have no job Millions of health workers
-1.501.53.04.56.0Projected shortfall by 2030Projected shortfall by 2030: 5.855.85Unemployed in 2024Unemployed in 2024: 0.940.94
Show the data as a table
Africa is short of health workers while nearly a million trained workers have no job. Millions of health workers.
ItemMillions of health workers
Projected shortfall by 20305.85
Unemployed in 20240.94
Sources for this section (6)

Country by country

In one sentenceKenya signed its US deal in December 2025.

Kenya signed its US deal in December 2025. The deal totals $2.48 billion, and Kenya pays $850 million of that. A Kenyan court suspended the deal because of the way it shares health data. A higher court later let it continue, and its final ruling is due on 30 October. Kenyan law already says health data must be kept in Kenya.

Other governments have pushed back. Zimbabwe ended talks in February 2026 and Ghana turned down a deal in April. Zambia's negotiators objected to sharing data for 25 years in return for five years of money. On 25 September, Zambia said the United States had agreed to replace those terms.

Nigeria has the largest deal, $5.05 billion, and has promised to pay 59% of it. That is a big promise from a government that spent 4.3% of its budget on health in 2023. Mozambique pays under 4% of its deal and Malawi under 7%, so both will struggle as US money falls away.

The DRC is fighting Ebola with a health budget that took 4% of government spending in 2023. Its US deal asks it to pay a quarter of $1.2 billion. Neighbouring Uganda has already ended its own outbreak.

Africa makes about 0.1% of the world's vaccines, and the wants Africa to make 60% of what it needs by 2040. Some firms are building that capacity, including Biovac in South Africa and EVA Pharma in Egypt. The , a new continental regulator based in Rwanda, started work in October 2025.

Few African governments give health the 15% of spending promised at Abuja Domestic government health spending, % of government spending, 2023
-505101520South AfricaSouth Africa: 16.916.9NamibiaNamibia: 1515BotswanaBotswana: 14.614.6Cabo VerdeCabo Verde: 13.813.8GhanaGhana: 10.110.1RwandaRwanda: 8.98.9ZambiaZambia: 8.98.9KenyaKenya: 8.78.7EgyptEgypt: 6.96.9MozambiqueMozambique: 6.86.8Côte d'IvoireCôte d'Ivoire: 6.66.6EthiopiaEthiopia: 5.75.7TanzaniaTanzania: 5.15.1UgandaUganda: 4.94.9NigeriaNigeria: 4.34.3DR CongoDR Congo: 44CameroonCameroon: 3.93.9SenegalSenegal: 3.63.6MalawiMalawi: 3.33.3

Abuja Declaration target: 15%. Namibia's value is 14.99%. Domestic general government health expenditure as a share of general government expenditure; excludes external aid channelled through government.

Show the data as a table
Few African governments give health the 15% of spending promised at Abuja. Domestic government health spending, % of government spending, 2023.
ItemDomestic government health spending, % of government spending, 2023
South Africa16.9
Namibia15
Botswana14.6
Cabo Verde13.8
Ghana10.1
Rwanda8.9
Zambia8.9
Kenya8.7
Egypt6.9
Mozambique6.8
Côte d'Ivoire6.6
Ethiopia5.7
Tanzania5.1
Uganda4.9
Nigeria4.3
DR Congo4
Cameroon3.9
Senegal3.6
Malawi3.3
African countries pay between 4% and 79% of their US health agreements Country co-investment as % of total agreement value, 2026-2030
-20020406080BotswanaBotswana: 79.379.3NigeriaNigeria: 58.958.9TanzaniaTanzania: 58.158.1CameroonCameroon: 5353Côte d'IvoireCôte d'Ivoire: 4848Burkina FasoBurkina Faso: 42.142.1AngolaAngola: 41.341.3NigerNiger: 40.140.1LesothoLesotho: 36.436.4GuineaGuinea: 35.935.9KenyaKenya: 34.334.3RwandaRwanda: 30.930.9EthiopiaEthiopia: 30.730.7SenegalSenegal: 30.230.2LiberiaLiberia: 2929Sierra LeoneSierra Leone: 25.625.6UgandaUganda: 25.125.1DR CongoDR Congo: 2525MadagascarMadagascar: 23.523.5BurundiBurundi: 16.716.7EswatiniEswatini: 1616South SudanSouth Sudan: 1212MalawiMalawi: 6.96.9MozambiqueMozambique: 3.73.7

All 24 African signatories. Agreements run five years (2026-2030) except Botswana and South Sudan (three years). Largest totals: Nigeria $5.05bn, Tanzania $3.1bn, Kenya $2.48bn, Uganda $2.30bn, Mozambique $1.90bn. Overall co-investment share across all 35 countries: 39%.

Show the data as a table
African countries pay between 4% and 79% of their US health agreements. Country co-investment as % of total agreement value, 2026-2030.
ItemCountry co-investment as % of total agreement value, 2026-2030
Botswana79.3
Nigeria58.9
Tanzania58.1
Cameroon53
Côte d'Ivoire48
Burkina Faso42.1
Angola41.3
Niger40.1
Lesotho36.4
Guinea35.9
Kenya34.3
Rwanda30.9
Ethiopia30.7
Senegal30.2
Liberia29
Sierra Leone25.6
Uganda25.1
DR Congo25
Madagascar23.5
Burundi16.7
Eswatini16
South Sudan12
Malawi6.9
Mozambique3.7
Sources for this section (7)

Why this matters

In one sentenceWhen health money comes through one-to-one deals, each government negotiates alone.

When health money comes through one-to-one deals, each government negotiates alone. A small country has little power to refuse data terms or payment schedules. If 24 African governments agreed the same basic rules, they would be much harder to ignore.

Governments are also negotiating rules on sharing virus samples and data at WHO, with a decision due in May 2027. Until then, the one-to-one deals are setting those rules in practice, one country at a time.

Money for pandemic preparedness mostly goes to disease tracking, testing and research, which protect the whole world from diseases that cross borders. What catches an outbreak early is a trained nurse in a staffed rural clinic, and that gets the least. The world raised $3 billion for Ebola in a few weeks. Nobody has called a meeting to put Africa's 943,000 idle health workers into jobs.

Sources for this section (1)

The case against this view

In one sentenceFor twenty years African governments have asked to own their health programmes, and paying a rising share is one way to do that.

For twenty years African governments have asked to own their health programmes, and paying a rising share is one way to do that. Nigeria and Tanzania chose to pay more than half of their deals, which may protect their own health spending in future budgets. The Ebola money came quickly because one country with resources acted, and a slower UN process might have cost lives. National courts and data laws, as in Kenya, may already protect patients as well as a common African rule would.

By audience

What you can do

Governments

Do thisPublish the full text of your US health deal and the share your government must pay each year, and put that share in the 2027 budget.

WhyThe largest payments fall due in 2027 and 2028, and terms that are not public cannot be defended in parliament or in court.

Governments

Do thisPay for posts for unemployed nurses and midwives before paying for new training places.

WhyNearly a million trained workers are idle while clinics are short of staff.

AU and regional bodies

Do thisAsk Africa CDC to draft one set of data rules that all 24 African signatories can use, before the in May 2027.

WhyOne shared position carries more weight than 24 separate ones.

NGOs and civil society

Do thisTrack the $3 billion promised for Ebola against what is actually paid, and publish the gap each month.

WhyPromises mean little until the money reaches clinics in Ituri.

Business and investors

Do thisBid for vaccine supply contracts backed by Gavi, and seek approval from the African Medicines Agency.

WhyA continental regulator and guaranteed orders lower the risk of making vaccines in Africa.

Philanthropy

Do thisHelp pay first-job salaries for nurses, on a schedule that governments sign up to take over.

WhyHiring workers Africa has already trained is the cheapest way to add health workers.

Researchers and media

Do thisBuild a public record of each country's health budget, its US deal payments and its hiring of health workers.

WhyPromises such as the Abuja target can only be enforced if someone measures them.

Young people and citizens

Do thisAsk candidates and local governments how many health jobs they will fund, and when.

WhyYoung nurses carry most of the unemployment, and hiring is a budget choice.

October 2026 to December 2027

Dates to watch

  1. 12 to 18 October 2026

    Annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank, Bangkok

    Limits on public wage bills in decide whether governments can hire health workers. Source (opens in a new tab)

  2. 30 October 2026

    Kenya's Court of Appeal rules on the Kenya-US health deal

    The first court test in Africa of the data terms in these deals. Source (opens in a new tab)

  3. December 2026

    UN General Assembly vote on the pandemic declaration

    Shows whether Africa's joint support can carry the text past US and European objections. Source (opens in a new tab)

  4. May 2027

    The World Health Assembly, the yearly meeting of all WHO members, receives the rules on sharing

    These global rules would cover what the one-to-one deals are deciding now. Source (opens in a new tab)

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