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Recommendation 15 of 20 Continental Act within 2 years · by September 2028

Build an African guarantee fund so pension savings can be invested at home

Why this matters

At the end of 2023, African pension funds put 44.4% of their investments in government bills and bonds on average. Government securities made up 81% of private pension investments in Ghana and 64.9% in Nigeria. In Kenya, 52% of Kshs. 2.81 trillion in pension savings sat in government securities in December 2025. That money pays for government budgets, and little of it builds roads, power or housing.

The rules are not what holds this money back. The (OECD) finds that limits on property, private funds and loans go unused in most African countries. What trustees lack is protection from losses. A guarantee that absorbs the first losses gives them that protection.

The pieces are already moving. Nigeria's National Pension Commission (PenCom) is designing a shared infrastructure fund for ₦31.32 trillion of pension savings. In May 2025 the African Development Bank (AfDB) agreed with the (PIDG), which finances infrastructure with money from donor governments, to build guarantees for local money.

A continental would let each small national guarantee company take on more deals. The 19 regulators in the Africa Pension Supervisors Association () could then compare results across countries.

Sources for this section (5)

Four levels of action

  1. What Africa asks of the world

    The World Bank Group should offer back-up guarantees in local currencies for bonds that African borrowers sell at home. Its new guarantee platform aims to issue $20 billion of guarantees a year by 2030. PIDG and the governments that fund it should do the same.

    Who
    The World Bank Group, PIDG and the governments that fund it
    When
    IMF and World Bank annual meetings, Bangkok, 12 to 18 October 2026
  2. What the African Union does

    The AfDB leads, with the African Trade and Investment Development Insurance agency () and Africa50, an infrastructure investor owned by 33 African countries, the AfDB and others. Together they set up a fund that takes first losses and backs national guarantee companies. Each year, APSA publishes each country's pension investment limits beside what funds actually invest. The African Guarantee Fund covers loans to small businesses only, so it joins for funds that lend to them.

    Who
    The AfDB with ATIDI and Africa50; APSA for the yearly comparison
    When
    Design study by June 2027; first money committed by September 2028
  3. What regional groups do

    In East Africa, the pension regulators of the agree common treatment of guaranteed bonds, which Kenya's guarantee company, Dhamana, already backs. In southern Africa, the Committee of Insurance, Securities and Non-banking Financial Authorities (CISNA) does the same and reports to finance ministers of the Southern African Development Community (). In West Africa, guaranteed bonds can be listed on the regional market of the (WAEMU). Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger remain in WAEMU, so their funds can buy these bonds under their own rules.

    Who
    East African Community regulators, CISNA and the WAEMU regional market
    When
    By June 2027
  4. Which country goes first, and why

    Nigeria and Kenya go first. Nigeria has had InfraCredit since 2017 and lets pension funds put up to 15% into . Kenya has Dhamana, in which the AfDB bought $10 million of shares in September 2024. Kenyan pension funds may put 10% into debt for infrastructure and affordable housing, and Kenya hosts APSA's office.

    Who
    PenCom in Nigeria and Kenya's Retirement Benefits Authority, with InfraCredit and Dhamana
    When
    Rules confirmed by June 2027; back-up guarantee terms agreed by December 2027

Before another country can do this

  • Published pension investment limits that already allow infrastructure or private debt.
  • A law that stops pension holdings being forced into a government debt restructuring.
  • A market for bonds in local currency, with working trustees and credit grades.
  • A national or regional guarantee company able to take the back-up guarantee.

What does not carry over from the first country

  • Nigeria's pension savings of more than ₦31 trillion give InfraCredit a base of local buyers that few countries can match.
  • Dhamana was built with anchor money from PIDG, backed by the United Kingdom, and support from FSD Africa, which few countries can expect.

Who else is ready

Other countries ready to follow, with reasons and sources
CountryWhySource
South AfricaIts pension rules have allowed up to 45% in infrastructure since January 2023.Source (opens in a new tab)
NamibiaIt requires 35% of pension assets to stay at home, and 1.75% to 3.5% in unlisted investments through regulated funds.Source (opens in a new tab)
GhanaIt allows 25% in private funds, but funds hold 0.58%, and its debt restructuring shows why trustees need protection.Source (opens in a new tab)

Has this worked before?

InfraCredit was set up in Nigeria in 2017 with $25 million of standby capital from GuarantCo, a guarantee company within PIDG. By the end of 2024 it had guaranteed 24 deals and drawn more than ₦200 billion from over 21 local investors. It stretched the average length of bonds from 3.2 years to 11. Pension funds supplied 56% of the money. Source (opens in a new tab)

OECD: InfraCredit case study

First steps

  1. African Union levelthe AfDB, with ATIDI and Africa50, orders a design study by June 2027. African foundations form a group to provide money at the African Venture Philanthropy Alliance conference in Cape Town, 9 to 11 November 2026.
  2. Regional groupsCISNA and East African pension regulators agree by June 2027 how guaranteed bonds count within existing limits, and APSA publishes its first comparison.
  3. Nigeria and KenyaPenCom and the Retirement Benefits Authority confirm how guaranteed bonds are treated by June 2027. The AfDB and PIDG agree back-up guarantee terms with InfraCredit and Dhamana by December 2027.

Who acts, and with what

Who leads
The AfDB with ATIDI and Africa50, with foundations providing first-loss money; national regulators keep the power to approve, with Nigeria and Kenya first
Instrument
A continental fund that takes first losses and backs national guarantors, with protections for trustees and a legal bar on forcing pension holdings into debt restructurings
How progress is checked
The fund raises its first money, and APSA figures show pension investment rising towards existing limits
Signal to change course
Trustees still refuse to invest because they lack protection
What stands in the way
Ghana's debt restructuring taught trustees to be careful. High returns on government bonds make other investments less attractive. The OECD also finds too few companies able to issue bonds.
Cost and money
Not yet known. InfraCredit started with $25 million of standby capital and added $27 million of shares in 2020, a guide to what one national guarantee company needs. Foundations would provide the first-loss money, and development banks the back-up guarantees.

Who else contributes

Who else contributes to this recommendation
WhoContribution
PenCom, the Retirement Benefits Authority and other APSA membersApprove the bonds under national rules
InfraCredit and DhamanaShare their methods and guarantee alongside the fund
African foundations and family officesProvide first-loss money
Fund managersFind and prepare projects
Associations of trusteesSet standards for protecting savers

What each audience can do

Philanthropy

What you can doCommit first-loss money

What you gainMany dollars of investment for each one given

Business and investors

What you can doPrepare infrastructure and housing projects that pension funds can invest in

What you gainLong-term money raised at home

Governments

What you can doPass protections for trustees into law

What you gainMoney from home for national priorities

AU and regional bodies

What you can doPublish limits and actual investments each year

What you gainEvidence of whether the fund works

Young people and citizens

What you can doAsk how your pension savings are invested

What you gainSavings that build the economy

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