Keep grain trade open in southern Africa and buy before the hungry months

Why this matters

The grain is already in the region. South Africa expects a record maize crop of about 17.3 million tonnes, and forecasts exports of 3 million tonnes. Zambia harvested 4.9 million tonnes. It has 2.49 million tonnes available to export, and 1 million tonnes in its Food Reserve Agency, the state body that buys and stores grain.

The need is coming. Regional forecasters expect below-normal rain from October to December across most of southern Africa. The UN expects 2.6 million people in Malawi to face a food crisis between October 2026 and March 2027. It also warns of higher food prices across the region.

Countries that act alone get it wrong. In August 2025, Zimbabwe banned maize imports on a harvest figure that proved false, and reversed the ban within weeks. It then bought 39% of South Africa's maize exports. The World Bank estimates that open borders earn Zambia about $97 million a year. It also finds that limits on trade would cost Zambian farmers about $1.42 billion between 2023 and 2030.

A forward contract is a deal to buy a set amount of grain at an agreed price, for delivery later. It gives the seller a sure sale and the buyer a known price. That removes the panic in which governments usually decide to ban exports.

Four levels of action

1. 1

   What Africa asks of the world

   The World Bank, the World Food Programme (WFP) and humanitarian donors should pay for grain for Malawi, Zimbabwe and Mozambique from surplus countries inside the region. The World Bank has done this before, when it helped pay for Malawi's purchase from Zambia in 2025. WFP purchases are already exempt from export bans under a 2022 World Trade Organization decision.

   Who

   The World Bank, WFP and humanitarian donors

   When

   Crisis funding for Malawi, Zimbabwe and Mozambique before January 2027

2. 2

   What the African Union does

   The African Union Commission adds bans on staple food exports to the scorecard it uses to review each country's farm policy every two years. This supports the goal in the Kampala Declaration to triple farm trade between African countries by 2035.

   Who

   The AU Commission, through its two-yearly CAADP review

   When

   By June 2027, in time for the next review

3. 3

   What regional groups do

   SADC ministers of agriculture and trade make the pledge. The Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) and the East African Community extend it to Tanzania and Uganda, which also sell maize into southern Africa. A West African version would need a separate deal between ECOWAS and Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. ECOWAS still treats goods from those three countries under its trade scheme.

   Who

   SADC, COMESA and the East African Community

   When

   Pledge by 30 November 2026; purchase contracts offered by 15 December 2026

4. 4

   Which country goes first, and why

   Zambia goes first. It has the most grain to export. It banned maize exports in 2016 and again in February 2024, so its promise not to do so again would carry weight. In October 2025 it signed a direct deal with the government of Malawi to sell it maize.

   Who

   Zambia's Ministry of Agriculture

   When

   Signs the pledge and publishes export volumes each month from 30 November 2026

Before another country can do this

• Crop estimates that are published and trusted
• A national reserve agency that can sign deals with other governments
• Credit or foreign currency to pay in advance
• Membership of the SADC, COMESA or East African Community trade rules

What does not carry over from the first country

• Zambia's surplus comes from a year of good weather. In 2024 it had to import maize.
• Its deal with Malawi relied on $45 million of World Bank money.

Who else is ready

Has this worked before?

Zambia's 2016 ban on maize exports is the warning. Studies found that it kept Zambian prices about 35% lower than they would otherwise have been. It also hurt consumers in Zimbabwe, and in later years it pushed maize farming into neighbouring countries. A ban can help at home for one season and cost the region for years. Source (opens in a new tab)

World Bank: maize trade policies in Zambia

First steps

1. African Unionthe AU Commission adds bans on staple food exports to its farm policy scorecard by June 2027.
2. Regional groupsSADC ministers of agriculture and trade issue a joint pledge against grain export bans for 2026 to 2027 by 30 November 2026. Reserve agencies in Malawi, Zimbabwe and Mozambique invite offers for forward contracts by 15 December 2026. Afreximbank, the African trade finance bank, opens a credit line by 31 January 2027.
3. Zambiathe Ministry of Agriculture signs the pledge and publishes the amount of maize available for export each month from 30 November 2026.

Who acts, and with what

Who leads

SADC ministers of agriculture and trade, with Zambia's Ministry of Agriculture going first

Instrument

A pledge by ministers within 30 days, and signed purchase contracts within 100 days

How progress is checked

Tonnes of maize under signed forward contracts before January 2027

Signal to change course

A country with surplus grain announces an export ban

What stands in the way

Countries with surplus grain face pressure at home to keep food in the country when prices rise. Countries short of grain may lack the foreign currency to pay in advance. Wrong crop estimates, as in Zimbabwe in 2025, mislead both sides.

Cost and money

Importing governments or their reserve agencies pay for the grain, using trade credit. The cost depends on the amounts and prices agreed, which are not yet known, and no reliable estimate of the savings exists. As a guide, the Zambia and Malawi deal was worth $77 million, of which $45 million came from the World Bank.

Who else contributes

What each audience can do