Pay for southern Africa's El Niño plan with African money before the rains fail

Why this matters

The drought is close to certain. The World Meteorological Organization gives a nearly 100% chance that El Niño lasts from December 2026 to February 2027. The UN puts the chance of a very strong event above 90%. It also gives a 70% chance that rain from October to December will be worse than in any El Niño year since 1950.

The UN plan covers 13 countries. Its 84 early actions would reach 11.9 million people for $111.3 million. About 80% is unfunded, and only 13 actions have their warning signs, activities and money agreed in advance. The UN says money that arrives after October may come too late for crops and livestock. It also says each dollar spent early can save up to seven dollars later.

The usual funders are pulling back. Money for food aid, emergency help for farmers and nutrition fell by an estimated 59% between 2022 and 2025. The World Food Programme (WFP) warns that El Niño could push 49 million more people into acute hunger by the end of 2027.

Africa's own insurance has been slow. The African Risk Capacity, the African Union's disaster insurance agency, paid Malawi $11.2 million on 2 August 2024. That was months after Malawi declared a drought in March. Money agreed in advance, and paid when a forecast is met, would reach families before the harvest fails.

Four levels of action

1. 1

   What Africa asks of the world

   The UN Central Emergency Response Fund, the UN's pooled emergency fund, and donor governments should pay the outside share of the plan before planting. They should pay under the same published warning signs as the African grant.

   Who

   The UN Central Emergency Response Fund and donor governments

   When

   Before the October to December planting season

2. 2

   What the African Union does

   The African Risk Capacity and the African Union Commission's Africa Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Early Action System (AMHEWAS) agree common drought warning signs. They test them against local crop data. The system's 24-hour situation room in Addis Ababa then signals when money should be released.

   Who

   The African Risk Capacity and the AU Commission

   When

   Standards published by June 2027, before the 2027 to 2028 season

3. 3

   What regional groups do

   The Southern African Development Community (SADC) runs a humanitarian operations centre in Nacala, Mozambique, which is part of the AMHEWAS network. It links the shared grant to national disaster agencies. The plan does not cover the Sahel. A Sahel version would run through the regional weather centre in Niger that belongs to the same network.

   Who

   The SADC secretariat and its operations centre

   When

   Grant agreed and unfunded actions published by 20 October 2026

4. 4

   Which country goes first, and why

   Zimbabwe and Mozambique go first. Both have already started early drought action this season, so money can reach running programmes within days. Mozambique also hosts the SADC operations centre.

   Who

   The national disaster agencies of Zimbabwe and Mozambique

   When

   First payment by 28 October 2026

Before another country can do this

• Drought warning signs tested against local crop data
• Lists of households approved in advance for cash transfers
• A national disaster agency with the power to release money
• Mobile money or other ways to reach rural households

What does not carry over from the first country

• Zimbabwe and Mozambique have already started their plans. Other countries have only protocols or plans on paper.
• Mozambique hosts the SADC operations centre, which makes coordination easier.

Who else is ready

Has this worked before?

In 2016 Malawi paid $4.7 million to the African Risk Capacity for drought insurance. The insurer's model used the wrong maize variety, so it did not pay out, although more than 6 million people were affected. Malawi received $8.1 million only after member countries changed the rules. Warning signs must be tested against local conditions before the money is needed. Source (opens in a new tab)

Bloomberg: Malawi's crop insurance in 2016

First steps

1. African Unionthe African Risk Capacity and AMHEWAS publish shared standards for drought warning signs by June 2027.
2. Regional groupsthree or more African foundations and farm businesses agree a shared grant by 20 October 2026, with the African Development Bank holding the money. By the same date, the UN and the SADC secretariat publish the unfunded actions with their warning signs and costs.
3. Zimbabwe and Mozambique: the first payment reaches their running drought programmes by 28 October 2026.

Who acts, and with what

Who leads

The SADC secretariat and African foundations, with the African Development Bank holding the money; Zimbabwe and Mozambique go first

Instrument

A shared grant for early action, with published warning signs and payment rules

How progress is checked

Share of the $111.3 million plan paid for and paid out before the October to December rains fail

Signal to change course

Hunger warnings rise while the plan still has no money

What stands in the way

Foundations may prefer their own programmes, with their own names on them. A shared fund needs an institution to hold the money that all sides trust. Warning signs that fail, as in Malawi in 2016, would damage trust in the whole approach.

Cost and money

The plan costs $111.3 million, of which about 80%, roughly $89 million, has no money yet. African foundations and businesses pay the gap through the shared grant.

Who else contributes

What each audience can do