Tie mineral export rules to proof that processing plants are being built

Why this matters

Several African countries already require processing at home, each in its own way. Zimbabwe banned exports of lithium ore in 2022 and will ban lithium concentrate from January 2027. Namibia banned exports of unprocessed lithium, cobalt, manganese, graphite and rare earths in June 2023. Ghana's 2023 policy says no lithium will leave the country raw. Guinea requires bauxite miners to start building an alumina refinery by 2027 or lose their permit. The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) limits cobalt exports to 87,000 tonnes a year for 2026 and 2027. Separate rules like these are easier for buyers to wait out.

Zimbabwe shows the risk of a fixed ban. It exported 1.13 million tonnes of lithium concentrate in 2025, and companies have committed about $1.45 billion to processing. Only the $400 million plant at Arcadia, owned by the Chinese firm Huayou, is ready, and it says it has no space for other suppliers. Two other plants, at Bikita and Kamativi, are still being built. A ban on 1 January would leave smaller miners with no buyer.

Countries that act alone can also be challenged. The European Union (EU) complained about Indonesia's ban on exporting nickel ore. In 2022 a panel of the World Trade Organization (WTO) found that the ban broke trade rules. Countries that manage supply can move prices, as the DRC's limits helped lift cobalt from about $5.50 a pound in February 2025 to $26 in April 2026. A standard shared by many producers would be harder to divide or to challenge.

Four levels of action

1. 1

   What Africa asks of the world

   The EU, China, the United States, Japan and the United Kingdom should accept African processing milestones without taking them to court or to the WTO. They should also help pay for processing plants and the power they need.

   Who

   The EU, China, the United States, Japan and the United Kingdom

   When

   Mining Indaba, Cape Town, 8 to 11 February 2027, and the United Kingdom's year chairing the G20 in 2027

2. 2

   What the African Union does

   The African Minerals Development Centre (AMDC), the African Union agency that helps members turn minerals into industry, writes a model standard. It sits under the Africa Green Minerals Strategy, adopted in February 2025. The standard sets export taxes that fall as plants pass agreed stages, deposits that companies lose if they miss deadlines, and checks by independent engineers.

   Who

   The AMDC and the African Union Commission

   When

   Draft by 31 January 2027, for the African Union summit in February 2027

3. 3

   What regional groups do

   The Southern African Development Community (SADC) agrees common stages through its 2026 to 2031 minerals project with the UN Economic Commission for Africa, which covers six producers. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) adopts the same text under its revised minerals policy, which calls for processing rules that can be enforced. Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have left ECOWAS and are suspended from the African Union. Mali mines lithium, so the standard is written as a model law that any producer can adopt.

   Who

   SADC mining ministers and the ECOWAS Commission

   When

   SADC by June 2027; ECOWAS by December 2027

4. 4

   Which country goes first, and why

   Zimbabwe goes first. It is Africa's leading lithium producer, and it faces a fixed deadline of 1 January 2027 with one working plant and two being built. The stages can be tested there within months.

   Who

   Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines and its revenue authority

   When

   Tax schedule published by 28 October 2026

Before another country can do this

• A law that lets ministers set export terms by regulation.
• A processing plant at home or in a neighbouring country.
• Reliable electricity for processing.
• Independent engineers who can check building work.
• Export figures published for each product.

What does not carry over from the first country

• Zimbabwe exports more than a million tonnes a year, enough to fill plants that a small producer could not supply.
• Its processors are Chinese miners linked to their own refineries in China.

Who else is ready

Has this worked before?

In 2014 Indonesia set a 7.5% tax on exports of copper concentrate. The tax fell to 5% once building of a smelter passed 7.5% of the work, and to zero once it passed 30%. The mining firm Freeport put down a deposit of $115 million. Exports carried on, but Freeport's Manyar smelter only opened in June 2024. Stages that lower a tax need firm deadlines and penalties as well. Source (opens in a new tab)

Freeport-McMoRan filing to the US Securities and Exchange Commission, July 2014

First steps

1. African Unionthe AMDC and the African Union Commission send a draft model standard to member states by 31 January 2027, for the summit in February 2027.
2. Regional groupsSADC mining ministers, with the UN Economic Commission for Africa, agree common stages by June 2027. The ECOWAS Commission adopts the same text by December 2027.
3. Zimbabwethe Ministry of Mines publishes a tax schedule by 28 October 2026. Producers file building timetables and deposits by 30 November 2026. The revenue authority and an independent engineer report every three months from March 2027.

Who acts, and with what

Who leads

The AMDC and the African Union Commission; Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines as the first country to apply the standard

Instrument

An African Union model standard, adopted in national regulations; in Zimbabwe, a regulation issued by the minister

How progress is checked

Producer countries applying the staged terms, and Zimbabwe exporting more lithium sulphate as concentrate exports fall

Signal to change course

Zimbabwe delays the ban for everyone without conditions, or countries adopt rules that conflict

What stands in the way

Producers want a plain delay to March or June 2027. Ministries may lack engineers to check building work. Weak prices could slow building.

Cost and money

Producers pay the tax. How much it raises depends on the rates and on lithium prices, and is not yet known. Companies could pay for the checks. No budget exists yet for the AMDC standard.

Who else contributes

What each audience can do