Agree one African minimum price for carbon credits sold to other countries

Why this matters

Under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, one country can pay another to cut emissions and count the cut towards its own target. African countries dominate the early supply. Madagascar holds 25 letters of authorisation, Rwanda 8, Nigeria 7, Zimbabwe 4 and Ghana 3. Thirteen of about 19 projects that airlines may use under CORSIA, the aviation industry's offset scheme, are African. As the main early seller, Africa is in a position to set terms.

Prices are low. On 1 September, credits from cookstove projects were offered at $5.31 a tonne and forest credits under REDD+ at $4.85. Credits that airlines may use were offered at $14.50. Officials at COP30 noted that many prices leave out a cost to the seller. Each tonne sold is a cut the seller can no longer count for itself. Cheap sales today will make Africa's own climate targets more expensive to meet later.

The rules and systems behind these sales are thin. AUDA-NEPAD launched African principles for fair and honest carbon markets on 14 February 2026. They cover community consent and the sharing of income, but they set no minimum price and create no registry. UN reviews have found errors in the first accounts of these sales. Kenya's registry had about 80 applications and no approved project by 31 July 2026, although its law sends 40% of income from land-based projects to communities. Weak records make it hard for buyers to trust African credits, and that pushes prices down further.

Four levels of action

1. 1

   What Africa asks of the world

   Countries that buy credits under Article 6, including Switzerland, Singapore and Japan, should pay at least the African minimum price. The UN aviation agency, which runs CORSIA, should accept the same floor. Buyers should also help pay for the registries that track each credit.

   Who

   Article 6 buyers, led by Switzerland, Singapore and Japan; the International Civil Aviation Organization

   When

   COP31, Antalya, 9 to 20 November 2026

2. 2

   What the African Union does

   The African Group of Negotiators, which speaks for Africa in UN climate talks, puts forward a minimum price and a plan for registries at COP31. AUDA-NEPAD and the group of African heads of state on climate change then add both to the African principles for carbon markets.

   Who

   AUDA-NEPAD, the African Group of Negotiators and the African heads of state committee on climate change

   When

   Proposal at COP31; added to the principles by June 2027

3. 3

   What regional groups do

   Sixteen countries formed the West African Alliance on Carbon Markets and Climate Finance in 2017, with backing from the West African Development Bank. The Alliance runs a pilot shared registry. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the East African Community follow for their members. The Alliance is separate from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), so Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger can join it even though they have left ECOWAS.

   Who

   The West African Alliance, SADC and the East African Community

   When

   A pilot registry with at least three countries by November 2027

4. 4

   Which country goes first, and why

   Ghana goes first. On 7 July 2025 it sent 11,733 credits to Switzerland, the first sale of this kind from Africa. It has a Carbon Market Office and an agreement with Singapore. It therefore has real prices against which to set a floor.

   Who

   Ghana's Carbon Market Office

   When

   Minimum price published in its rules by March 2027

Before another country can do this

• A national office that approves sales and publishes its rules.
• A national registry that can report to the UN.
• A law that gives communities a share of the income.
• Staff who can adjust national emission accounts when credits are sold.
• An agreement with at least one buying country.

What does not carry over from the first country

• Ghana began working with Switzerland in November 2020, years before most African countries had rules.
• Most of Ghana's credits come from cookstoves. Countries that sell forest credits, such as Madagascar, face different prices and risks.

Who else is ready

Has this worked before?

In May 2023 Zimbabwe said the state would take 50% of carbon project income, with a further 20% for communities. It cancelled several projects, including Kariba. Investors took fright, and in August 2023 the government settled on 30% for the state and 25% of developers' earnings for communities. Terms work best when they are agreed in advance and shared across countries, because buyers can move to the next seller. Source (opens in a new tab)

Engineering News: Zimbabwe settles on a 30% share of carbon income

First steps

1. African Unionthe African Group of Negotiators puts forward a minimum price and a registry plan at COP31, 9 to 20 November 2026. AUDA-NEPAD drafts the new rules by June 2027.
2. Regional groupsthe West African Alliance opens a pilot registry with at least three countries by November 2027. The SADC secretariat plans one by the same date.
3. Ghanathe Carbon Market Office publishes a minimum price in its rules by March 2027.

Who acts, and with what

Who leads

AUDA-NEPAD and the African Group of Negotiators; Ghana's Carbon Market Office as the first country to apply the price

Instrument

An addition on price and registries to the African principles for carbon markets, matched by national rules

How progress is checked

A published minimum price in the rules of at least five countries, and one shared registry at work

Signal to change course

Governments keep approving sales below the minimum price

What stands in the way

Governments need income now, and buyers resist higher prices. A floor set too high could stop sales. One country that breaks ranks would undercut the rest.

Cost and money

The cost of shared registries is not yet known. Governments may lose some sales if buyers refuse the floor, but they would earn more for each tonne they sell.

Who else contributes

What each audience can do